Greyhound Handicapping - Don't Talk Yourself Out of Winning

On March 28th at Twin River Greyhound Park, I picked a $30 winner in the first race. Trophy Tracker in the 4 box didn't look too good at first glance. He's a 2 yr old out of Iruska All Star and Ozsum Moonmist. Last year, he had 8 races with 2 wins, 2 places, 2 thirds and 2 fourths. Talk about consistent.

This year, with 7 races, he's only come in 3 times. They were all wins, but still. In this race, he's coming out of BB where he won, but he's facing some pretty classy dogs. RC Dirty Harry who's a solid A dog, although he seems to be in a slump. Pal's Magic Man, in the 8 box, coming off a third place finish in A after a good schooling race because of trouble in a previous race.

Even the 2, Haily D Laila, who seems to be struggling to get back into form after a 2 month layoff, is a AA dog. So, why did I like Trophy Tracker? Why don't you download the program and take a look at it while I explain what I liked about the dog and how I managed to miss the bet.

Because I live out of state, my trips to Twin River are few and far between now. I was running late and although I had handicapped the program at home, I still hadn't gone over it for the last time. So when I got there, I was walking and trying to read the program with about five minutes before the first race went off.

I saw where I had marked Trophy Tracker down for a Win and Place bet and gave him a look and then wondered if I was making a mistake. Sure, I had seen him come in from the 8 box before and he had run a really good race.

I had also seen him in his previous race to this one, where he went from 7th to 3rd with a really good effort, but got into trouble on the far turn when another dog bumped him offstride. I made a note on my program at the time to bet him in his next race, because he was so determined in this one.

Except for this race, he's always been in an outside box and he really prefers the inside, so I figured if he was closer to the rail, he'd have a better chance. Now, I began to doubt myself as I looked at all the class in the race. Maybe I was putting too much stock in that race I'd seen him run where he'd run his heart out.

While I dithered, time passed and the bell rang and it was too late to bet. I told myself I had probably had a lucky escape. A minute later, I was beating myself up for not betting him when the toteboard flashed the payoffs. He paid $30 to Win and $17.20 to place.

To my credit, I didn't walk out the door. I played the rest of the bets I'd picked and managed to make a small profit. I had two dogs that placed and a couple of quinielas. I also had a good lesson in not being my own worst enemy.

If you talk yourself out of bets by looking over them too many times, learn from my mistake. Go over your program. Write down what you're going to bet and bet it. There's nothing worse than talking yourself out of winning into losing.